I do not have any clear indication one way or the other. We will see. But look: it’s not like poly was ever easy, and now it has suddenly become difficult. People go to great lengths, and overcome significant societal pressure, to be able to to do it. If I had to make a call, I would say we are just going to add some precautions and move on. The STD-prevention protocol is a great precedent.
My main question mark is about how different cultures approach risk and uncertainty, and integrate new information. I have written about this here. The poly crowd skews yoga-therapy-emotional intelligence, rather than hard science-probability theory. For example, I have been told “Why all this math for a date?” (implication: do you no longer love me? Are these incomprehensible numbers going to tell you whether I can see you or not?). And I have been in calls where people obsessed a lot about “The Rules” given by the Belgian govt, with very little thoughts of how the govt might be getting it wrong, or have secondary objectives other than people’s overall health. And almost no turning to the scientific literature. In the poly microcosm there is an authoritarian streak: “follow the rules! stay at home!”
But again, that is everywhere, not just with us. If anything, we have already learned the hard way that not all rules and societal norms are good for our long term well-being. I trust we will stay with this lesson.