Article arguing that everyone should stay home from right now, as otherwise it will surely overwhelm the health systems: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/f4d3d9cd99ca
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Steckbrief.html
"Inside China’s All-Out War on the Coronavirus". Basically the best article about what worke in China to beat the pandemic, free instructions for other countries to do the same. See: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html
About the origins of the virus: "The Trail Leading Back to the Wuhan Labs", https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-china-trail-leading-back-to-wuhan-labs/ . Analyzes the hypothesis that the virus might have escaped from one of two labs in Wuhan studying bat coronaviruses.
Updates by Gesundheitsamt of Westerwaldkreis, esp. about the number of people with confirmed infection in the area: https://www.westerwaldkreis.de/aktuelles-detailansicht/gesundheitsamt-informiert.html
Cases as of 2020-03-17 21:00: "53 bestätigte Fälle im Westerwaldkreis."
Global dashboard of the pathways of different countries:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-cases-since-100th-case
Global table, incl. cases and tests per 1 million inhabitants:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Dashboard for Germany, by province:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4
Prognosis for Germany, base on data from 2020-04-08: https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/a_id_11865988.html . This indicates that around 2020-04-22, new infections would be down so much that it would be possible to restart contact tracing, replacing population-wide contact reduction measures in part.
Global dashboard of cases:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Global dashboard with the most up-to-date information, by John Hopkins University:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
"Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting", https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/global_cfr_estimates.html
This is basically a way to determine what proportion of infections the testing system of a country can detect. It depends on the case fatality rate "adjusted or controlling for under-reporting" as its input – basically on the infection fatality rate, then. In the study they assume 1.4%, but a recent study from Germany shows it's probably more likely 0.37%.
"In one Italian town, we showed mass testing could eradicate the coronavirus", https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo
"Erste Ergebnisse von deCode Genetics [beim Testen zufällig ausgewählter Personen in Island] zeigen, dass […] die Hälfte der bestätigen Fälle asymptomatisch ist", https://orf.at/stories/3159008
New study estimating the base reproduction number R0 to be 5.7, using more precise data and models than the early studies that estimated the number at 2.2: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/
A U.S. map based on data from Internet connected fever thermometers, providing the earliest warning system about new cases: https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical
Dashboard for Hong Kong, including the real-time effective reproductive number: https://covid19.sph.hku.hk/dashboard . They used statistical methods to be able to tell the Re up to three days prior rather than 10 days prior as usually.
"In New York City [!], about 21 percent, or one of every five residents, tested positive for coronavirus antibodies during the state survey. The rate was 16.7 percent in Long Island, 11.7 percent in Westchester and Rockland Counties, and 3.6 percent in the rest of the [New York] state [!]. Almost 14 percent of those tested in New York [state] were positive, according to preliminary results from the state survey, which sampled approximately 3,000 people over two days at grocery and big-box stores." (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html)
Tracking and forecasts of effective reproduction numbers Re over time:
This includes an open source (MIT licenced) utility that calculates these Re numbers: https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid
Nowcasting the Re value for Germany: "Schätzung der aktuellen Entwicklung der SARS-CoV-2-Epidemie in Deutschland - Nowcasting", https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/17_20_SARS-CoV2_vorab.pdf
Contains a detailed explanation of how this is done. Including the way to calculate R from the ratio of people infected in the previous and next generation time of days, here the previous 4 days and future 4 days of the day for which R is calculated.
As of 2020-04-16, the effective reproductive number Re is estimated to be 0.7 for Germany. See: https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/a-a-98e2640e-eb0b-4909-9699-d450fb15be3c
Global forecast tool for the COVID-19 outbreak to predict total deaths and duration of the first wave of the epidemic in countries that implemented lockdowns:
https://bit.ly/2JgYCGo
https://kooplex-fiek.elte.hu/notebook/report-pkrisz5-covid19dashmodel---/report/
Based on this paper: "Predicting the ultimate outcome of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy", https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.07912.pdf . Preprint. Gives a logistic growth model of the lockdown.
Epidemic prognosis calculator. Written in JavaScript, running fast, working with differential equations. See: https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/
prediction of maximum cases in Germany
Start of intervention: "On 16 March, the state of Bavaria declared a state of emergency for 14 days and introduced measures to limit public movement […]. Bavarian minister president Markus Söder ordered closures of all sports and leisure facilities starting on 17 March. […] non-essential shops are to be closed at all times. […] In the evening, Merkel announced measures similar to Bavaria for the entire country, agreed on by all federal states and the ruling coalition. This also includes a prohibition on travelling in coaches, attending religious meetings, visiting playgrounds or engaging in tourism. […] On 22 March, the government and the federal states agreed for at least two weeks to forbid gatherings of more than two people and require a minimum distance of 1.5 metres (4 ft 11 in) between people in public except for families, partners or people living in the same household. Restaurants and services like hairdressers were to be closed." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany#Reactions)
We can assume 2020-03-22 as the start of measures, given that people were not really following the earlier orders much and there were no distancing rules before. By 2020-03-22, they had however understood the severity of the situation and complied.
Using the example of China, "we can foresee that the cumulative curve of patients who are infected will peak 30 days [after the intervention measures]". ("COVID-19 and Italy: what next?", https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30627-9 ).
That article also shows that the maximum number of cumulative cases is about 4 times what it was at the beginning of the measures. For Germany, there were 18610 cases on 2020-03-22. So for the best case scenario, roughly we can expect about 80 000 cases in total for this wave of the pandemic, with new infections coming to a near-standstill around 2020-04-22. That's an infection risk of about 1 in 1000 in Germany. Given that the German measures are less strict than those in China, realistically there could be 100 000 - 120 000 cases.
About 80% of transmissions during a lockdown are inside families, and probably similar if "only" social distancing measures are used instead of a full lockdown (see under "transmission" for sources). Due to this, the epidemic will spread for some time inside families, esp. if testing and case isolation is slower. It does nearly not spread in the community though if social distancing measures are in place. For the overall trend, this means that the reproductive number R will stay above 1 for some time, but it's already certain that it will go down to much less than 1 once the epidemic runs out of new people to infect in families.
"Sustainable social distancing through facemask use and testing during the Covid-19 pandemic", https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049981v1
This is an interesting paper as it argues that "20% effective social protection brings the reproduction number below 1.0 so long as 75% of the symptomatic population is covered by TTI [testing, treatment, isolation] within 12 hours of symptom onset". It accounts for 40% of asymptomatic but still infectious patients. Note that "20% effective social protection" does not mean social distancing but less invasive measures such as facemask usage and hand washing.
"Scientists warn we may need to live with social distancing for a year or more", https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/17/21181694
"COVID-19 and Italy: what next?", https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30627-9 . Gives a prognosis for Italy based on an exponential function. Does not give a clear prediction for the impact of interventions.
"High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19", 2020-03-09, https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.05003.pdf . Includes world maps with predictions of R values for March and July 2020.
How to estimate the effective reproduction number R(t) over time: basically you do (agent based?) simulations until you find the R(t) values that can accurately model the observed day-by-day confirmed cases. You use a model for these confirmed cases though, probably to flatten the variations introduced by reporting etc.. See for an example: "Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea", https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30150-8/fulltext
Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
"Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period", https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793
"The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection." And table 2 shows that:
These are the most probably, expected values. They vary within a confidence inerval. Source: "The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application", https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808 .
"We estimate the median incubation period of COVID-19 is 4.8 days (95%CI, 4.2, 5.4). 5% of the cases who develop symptoms will do so by 1.6 days (95% CI, 1.3, 2.0) after infection, and 95% by 14.0 days (12.2, 15.9)." (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1.full.pdf+html , p. 13)
There is also a nice graph showing that relationship, see figure 2 (A). It means that even a 14-day-after-last-exposure quarantine is not fully safe.
"The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days."
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/
"The most commonly reported clinical symptom in laboratory-confirmed cases is
fever (88%), followed by dry cough (68%), fatigue (38%), sputum production (33%), dyspnoea (19%), sore throat (14%), headache (14%) and myalgia or arthralgia (15%). Less common symptoms are diarrhoea (4%) and vomiting (5%)." Sputum production is basically wet cough.
Source: "Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)pandemic: increased transmission in the EU/EEAand the UK–sixth update", 2020-03-12, https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-sixth-update-Outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf
Mild cases usually show as cold symptoms: "A yet-to-be published paper, also from German researchers, looked at nine of the country’s earliest confirmed Covid-19 patients. […] But, unlike much of the data from China to date — which suggests most people present with fever and a dry cough — symptoms for many people in this group resembled a cold. So only two of the nine had a fever and seven had a cough, but just as common were symptoms like stuffy nose, runny nose, and sneezing." (https://www.vox.com/2020/2/20/21143785)
So it may be that the Chinese hospitalized cases were the more severe ones, with may others with cold-like symptoms going undetected. The original paper notes these initial symptoms the patients were presenting with, by case:
Source: "Virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019", PDF available for download at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1
"Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection", https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-symptoms-smell-taste.html
Skin rashes and frostbite-like conditions are also a symptom, and it may appear before other symptoms: https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/tell-tale-rash-could-latest-18106390
Toe skin inflammation: "Dermatologist: ‘COVID toes’ a potential symptom of the new coronavirus", https://www.wilx.com/content/news/Dermatologist-COVID-toes-a-potential-symptom-of-the-new-coronavirus-569857391.html
"Flussschema: Verdachtsabklärung und Maßnahmen", https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Massnahmen_Verdachtsfall_Infografik_DINA3.html
"Coronavirus looks different in kids than in adults", https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/17/coronavirus-looks-different-kids-than-adults/
"Zur Zeit gibt es für Schulen und öffentliche Einrichtungen [in Taiwan] übrigens Einlasskontrollen mittels Fieberthermometer. Bei einer Temperatur über 37,5 (Stirn) oder 38,0 (Ohr) wird der Zutritt verweigert und ein Arztbesuch empfohlen." (https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/a/25613942.html). Note that the temperatures given here are the estimated core temperatures based on measured temperature and ambient temperature; the actual temperature at the forehead will be lower, for example, but IT fever thermometers automatically make these adjustments.
"Angriff auf die Lunge – Bei den meisten Menschen bleibt eine Infektion mit dem Coronavirus ohne schwerwiegende Folgen, andere sterben daran: Welche Faktoren spielen eine Rolle?" (https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/a-a-1de5d894-5672-43ff-a78b-bb3e6e402ed5). Tells that pneumonia does not develop in most of the cases – means, the virus can only take hold in the upper respiratory tract and is defeated there by the immune system.
"COVID-19 ist auch eine systemische Gefäßentzündung", https://www.aerztezeitung.de/Nachrichten/a-408778.html
From the head of the WHO mission to China: "Is the virus infecting almost everyone, as you would expect a novel flu to? – No. 75 to 80 percent of all clusters are in families. You get the odd ones in hospitals or restaurants or prisons, but the vast majority are in families. And only 5 to 15 percent of your close contacts develop disease. So they try to isolate you from your relatives as quickly as possible, and find everyone you had contact with in 48 hours before that."
(https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html)
"Date: February 24th, 2020 […] Dr. Liang Wannian, Head of Expert Panel of COVID-19 Resposne of China National Health Commission (NHC)[:] […] Good evening everyone! Let me begin with the main purposes and the major findings of the WHO-China Joint Mission on COVID-19. […] Familial clustering of COVID-19 has been identified, especially in Guangdong and Sichuan, where up to 78% - 85% of the confirmed cases were from familiar clusters. The familial clustering just reflected that the prevention and control measures in these two provinces are highly effective. Thanks to the these strict prevention and control measures, only the second-generation cases and clusters occurred inside families after the occurrence of imported cases. No continuous community spread was found. Thus, the relatively large number of clustered cases is not too bad." (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/joint-mission-press-conference-script-english-final.pdf)
"[From an interview with the head of the] World Health Organization (WHO) mission to China, led by the agency’s assistant director general and veteran epidemiologist Bruce Aylward. […] The idea that the spread of this virus is driven mainly by families features prominently in your report. How do we know that? […] You look at the big, long lists of all the cases and identify those where you have clusterings in space and time and try to investigate what kind of clustering happened: Was it in a hospital, an old-age home, theaters, restaurants? We found it was predominantly in families. It’s not a big surprise; China had shut down a lot of the other ways people could gather. And family clusters are the closest, longest exposures [to the virus], and getting the virus is a function of whether someone’s got it, how long they’re exposed, and how much virus they are shedding." (https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067)
The overall secondary attack rate of a case among its close contacts was 7%, as per https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/a-72e2a605-5865-4d23-81b1-c1c4f453d659 . This was not yet found in the original study, but conforms to the finding of that study, which says: the secondary attack rate (for cases then developing symptoms) among close contacts of a case was 6-8% for 0-59 years, 15% of 60-69 years, 10% for 70+ years. See: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1.full.pdf+html , figure 1, page 12 .
"Household contacts and those travelling with a case where at higher risk of infection (ORs 6 and 7) than other close contacts. The household secondary attack rate was 15%" (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1.full.pdf+html)
This means: the risk of infection by being a household contact is 600% higher and by being a travel partner 700% higher compared to being any other "close contact" of a case. On average 15% of household members get infected by a COVID-19 case in the household. Which of course can be zero a lot of times. This also means that 15%/6 = 2.5% (1 in 40) of non-household, non-travel-partner close contacts get infected by a case.
Note that this is from a study with contact tracing and intervention of isolating the infected cases. The proportions would be higher otherwise, as close contacts would be exposed for longer to the source without isolation. It does not change that the rate of transmission among non-close contacts (such as shoppers in the same supermarket etc.) will be way less than 2.5%.
The same and even lower numbers (2.5% as for non-family close contacts) can be expected in households when practicing isolation of all sick individuals in the household, even those who have simple cold symptoms. Together with social distancing in the household to deal with the 48 hour period of pre-symptomatic infectiousness, this should bring the household secondary attack rate close to zero.
From randomized population screening in Iceland it appears that men are at a 1.66 times higher risk of becoming infected than women. See: "Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population", https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100
Risk of infection from fomites and non-close contact: from a modeling study based on data from contact tracing it appears that infection risk from non-close contacts is two orders of magnitude smaller than from any close contact (household or not). A close contact was defined as follows: "A close contact is defined as an individual who had unprotected close contact (within 1 meter) with a confirmed case or an asymptomatic infection within 2 days before their symptom onset or sample collection".
See: "Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants",
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20056010 , published 2020-04-15
Specifically:
Best summary of studies about transmission modes:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/
So far, in Germany there have been no confirmed transmissions during shopping or when using public transport. There may of course be some, but it means that the risk of these activities (esp. with proper social distancing) are very limited. Transmission rather happens during prolonged, close personal contact. Not when passing somebody for a few seconds in a supermarket.
Source: "Und Sie sitzen kürzlich bei Markus Lanz und sagen, bisher seien keine Infektionen beim Friseur, beim Busfahren oder beim Einkaufen nachgewiesen worden. Sind die Maßnahmen etwa zu hart? […] Wenn es noch einzelne Übertragungen beispielsweise im Supermarkt oder beim Friseur gibt, ist das nicht gut, aber auch kein großes Problem. Es wurde immer gesagt, dass unser Ziel nicht die restlose Eindämmung des Virus ist, sondern, dass wir unter der Kapazitätsgrenze der Krankenhäuser bleiben. […] Unsere vorläufigen Daten geben ja zumindest Hinweise darauf, dass das Virus eher nicht über Oberflächen, sondern bei engem Kontakt übertragen wird. Und der Fall bei München, also der deutschlandweit erste, deutet in eine ähnliche Richtung. Die Mitarbeiterin des Autozulieferers aus China hat bei ihrem Besuch nur Kollegen angesteckt, mit denen sie recht eng zusammengearbeitet hat. Es gab keine Übertragung im Restaurant, der Taxifahrer hat sich nicht infiziert und niemand in öffentlichen Verkehrsmitteln. Und das, obwohl diese Frau hochinfektiös gewesen zu sein scheint. " (https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-04/hendrik-streeck-covid-19-heinsberg-symptome-infektionsschutz-massnahmen-studie/seite-3)
After implementation of public health measures, the type of exposure leading to infection in Iceland was roughly as follows: household 80%, work 15%, social 5%. Infecting during shopping is not even included, so that risk seems very low indeed. This was derived from contact tracing information. See: "Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population", https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100
"Der Hauptübertragungsweg scheint die Tröpfcheninfektion zu sein. Theoretisch möglich sind auch Schmierinfektion […].
Tröpfcheninfektion: Es kann davon ausgegangen werden, dass die hauptsächliche Übertragung über Tröpfchen erfolgt. Epidemiologische Studien, die dies untermauern, konnten noch nicht identifiziert werden.
Aerosol: keine Evidenz
Schmierinfektion: Eine Übertragung durch Schmierinfektion ist prinzipiell nicht ausgeschlossen, vermutlich spielt dies jedoch nur eine untergeordnete Rolle, da häufig Infektionsketten identifiziert werden konnten, die eher für eine direkte Übertragung, z. B. durch Tröpfchen, sprechen."
(https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Steckbrief.html)
There is relatively good evidence from the first cluster of cases in Germany that even brief close contact can pass the virus. In this case, two colleagues were sitting back-to-back in the canteen until one asked for the salt. This may have been either droplet infection or fomites (due to both touching the salt shaker), but in both cases, it was just a brief, passing contact. Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN21R1DB
There is a new study from Singapore that found infectious (?) virus on surfaces from rooms of patients, but only during their first week of symptoms. See: https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/a_id_11856513.html . In the second week patients would still shed virus, but in a lower concentration, too low for infectious virus to be detected on surfaces. This indicates that surface disinfection makes no sense where only low concentrations of virus are expected (such as in supermarkets and other public spaces).
Todo: add the link to the original study.
There is no evidence of fecal-oral transmission. From a detailed study of nine patients: "Infectious virus was readily isolated from throat- and lung-derived samples, but not from stool samples in spite of high virus RNA concentration. […] Further studies should therefore address whether SARS-CoV-2 shed in stool is rendered non-infectious through contact with the gut environment. Our initial results suggest that measures to contain viral spread should aim at droplet-, rather than fomite-based transmission.", https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1
"[T]he method adopted in China [… included] basic hygiene measures, including constant emphasis on the importance of frequent hand washing to the public. As we all know in hygiene, 30% of infectious diseases of the respiratory tract are caused by hands touching the mucosa of the respiratory tract." (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/joint-mission-press-conference-script-english-final.pdf)
Discussion of other possibilities how the virus might spread: "How does the new coronavirus spread? These new studies offer clues.", https://www.vox.com/2020/2/20/21143785
In buses with A/C and other actively ventilated closed spaces, the virus can infect people up to 4.5 m away by droplets. Masks seem to prevent such infections. Source: a study from China, shown in "Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds", https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay
"So the main way of disease transmission is by respiratory droplet. But the fact that health workers, NYPD officers (currently over 500) and others are getting infected wearing masks points to surface contamination as the second main mode of infection, or, possibly lack of training in wearing the masks and/or poor hand washing, or, that aerosol transmission is indeed important." ("What is the main way COVID-19 spreads?", https://medicalsciences.stackexchange.com/q/22796)
"Experts tell White House coronavirus can spread through talking or even just breathing", https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html . Does not provide definitive evidence, so to be researched more.
"Although the virus titer was greatly reduced, viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured for this length of time:
"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/
Quoted from a study at https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article
"These Coronavirus Exposures Might Be the Most Dangerous – As with any other poison, viruses are usually deadlier in larger amounts.", https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-viral-dose.html
Full article available as: ~/Projects/Body_Development/COVID-19_Pandemic/Literature.These_Coronavirus_Exposures_Might_Be_the_Most_Dangerous.pdf
"The importance of viral dose is being overlooked in discussions of the coronavirus. As with any other poison, viruses are usually more dangerous in larger amounts. Small initial exposures tend to lead to mild or asymptomatic infections, while larger doses can be lethal. […] Both small and large amounts of virus can replicate within our cells and cause severe disease in vulnerable individuals such as the immunocompromised. In healthy people, however, immune systems respond as soon as they sense a virus growing inside. Recovery depends on which wins the race: viral spread or immune activation. […] Dose sensitivity has been observed for every common acute viral infection that has been studied in lab animals, including coronaviruses. […] Low-dose infections can even engender immunity, protecting against high-dose exposures in the future. […] People should take particular care against high-dose exposures, which are most likely to occur in close in-person interactions — such as coffee meetings, crowded bars and quiet time in a room with Grandma — and from touching our faces after getting substantial amounts of virus on our hands. In-person interactions are more dangerous in enclosed spaces and at short distances, with dose escalating with exposure time. For transient interactions that violate the rule of maintaining six feet between you and others, such as paying a cashier at the grocery store, keep them brief — aim for “within six feet, only six seconds.” Because dose matters, medical personnel face an extreme risk, since they deal with the sickest, highest-viral-load patients. We must prioritize protective gear for them. For everyone else, the importance of social distancing, mask-wearing and good hygiene is only greater, since these practices not only decrease infectious spread but also tend to decrease dose and thus the lethalness of infections that do occur. While preventing viral spread is a societal good, avoiding high-dose infections is a personal imperative, even for young healthy people. At the same time, we need to avoid a panicked overreaction to low-dose exposures. Clothing and food packaging that have been exposed to someone with the virus seem to present a low risk. Healthy people who are together in the grocery store or workplace experience a tolerable risk — so long as they take precautions like wearing surgical masks and spacing themselves out."
"Durch Einhalten von stringenten Hygienemaßnahmen ist zu erwarten, dass die Viruskonzentration bei einem Infektionsereignis einer Person so weit reduziert werden kann, dass es zu einem geringeren Schweregrad der Erkrankung kommt, bei gleichzeitiger Ausbildung einer Immunität. Diese günstigen Voraussetzungen sind bei einem außergewöhnlichen Ausbruchsereignis (superspreading event, z.B. Karnevals-Sitzung, Apres-Ski-Bar Ischgl) nicht gegeben. Mit Hygienemaßnahmen sind dadurch auch günstige Effekte hinsichtlich der Gesamtmortalität zu erwarten."
Source: "Vorläufiges Ergebnis und Schlussfolgerungen der COVID-19 Case-Cluster-Study (Gemeinde Gangelt)", https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf
"We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission."
Source: "Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19", https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5
Good overview article about pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission, with many links to studies: "It's Estimated 1 in 4 Coronavirus Carriers Could Be Asymptomatic. Here's What We Know", https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-we-know-so-far-about-those-who-can-pass-corona-without-symptoms
"In addition to case reports, pre-symptomatic transmission has been inferred through modelling, and the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was estimated to be around 48% and 62%. Pre-symptomatic transmission was deemed likely based on a shorter serial interval of COVID-19 (4.0 to 4.6 days) than the mean incubation period (five days) with the authors indicating that many secondary transmissions would have already occurred at the time when symptomatic cases are detected and isolated. Major uncertainties remain in assessing the influence of pre-symptomatic transmission on the overall transmission dynamics of the pandemic."
Source: "Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)pandemic: increased transmission in the EU/EEAand the UK–sixth update", 2020-03-12, https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-sixth-update-Outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf
"Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms –is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission." (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf#page=2)
"Mit der Entscheidung […] berufen sich Mediziner und Landkreis nach eigenen Angaben auf die Richtlinien des Robert Koch-Instituts, wonach eine Ansteckungsgefahr ab zwei Tage vor den ersten Symptomen bestehe." (https://www.morgenpost.de/vermischtes/article228605257/Coronavirus-Corona-News-Ticker-Lufthansa-streicht-Haelfte-Fluege-Suedtirol-Risikogebiet.html)
"There’s this big panic in the West over asymptomatic cases. Many people are asymptomatic when tested, but develop symptoms within a day or two.
In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. […]
There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground."
(https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html)
There are several reports about pre-symptomatic transmission, such as this: " 15.46 Uhr: Auf einem Kreuzfahrtschiff auf dem Nil sind nach offiziellen Angaben zwölf Menschen positiv auf das Coronavirus getestet worden. Es handele sich um Ägypter, die auf dem Schiff arbeiteten, teilte das Gesundheitsministerium mit. Sie seien zwar positiv getestet worden, zeigten aber keine Symptome. Die Behörden hätten die Tests angeordnet, nachdem das Virus bei einer Touristin aus Taiwan nach ihrer Rückkehr festgestellt worden sei." (https://www.morgenpost.de/vermischtes/article228605257/Coronavirus-Corona-News-Ticker-Lufthansa-streicht-Haelfte-Fluege-Suedtirol-Risikogebiet.html)
The best estimate of the proportion of true asymptomatic cases (as opposed to pre-symptomatic) is 17.9% of all cases, with a 95% credible interval of 15.5–20.2%.
Source: "Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020", https://dx.doi.org/10.2807%2F1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180
There are rumors citing leaked documents that 18-33% of all cases (40,000 in the case of China) are true asymptomatic cases: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN21C0P2
"Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptomatic infections with COVID-19 screened among close contacts in Nanjing, China.", https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32146694 . Shows that completely asymptomatic carriers (who never develop symptoms) are young, with a median age of 14.0 years.
"We monitored SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in upper respiratory specimens obtained from 18 patients […] in Zhuhai, Guangdong, China, including 4 patients with secondary infections (1 of whom never had symptoms) within two family clusters […] The viral load that was detected in the asymptomatic patient was similar to that in the symptomatic patients, which suggests the transmission potential of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic patients."
Source: "SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients", https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737
Children get infected as often as adults, but show no or little symptoms. They shed the virus longer than adults, though. This makes it possible that the virus spreads in schools without being detected, and that children could be multipliers of the disease. See: https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/a-72e2a605-5865-4d23-81b1-c1c4f453d659
"Dauer der Infektiosität: Es liegen bislang keine publizierten Daten dazu vor, bis zu welchem Zeitpunkt nach Erkrankungsbeginn vermehrungsfähige Viren im oberen Atemwegstrakt gefunden werden. […] Eine Studie mit 17 Patienten hat die Ausscheidungsdynamik in den oberen Atemwegen untersucht. […] Ein Nachweis von Virus-RNA war etwa bis zum Tag 7–9 nach Erkrankungsbeginn möglich. In einer weiteren Studie wurde die Dauer von Erkrankungsbeginn bis zu dem Zeitpunkt, bis keine virale RNA mehr nachweisbar war – abhängig vom Schweregrad der Erkrankung – auf 13–18 Tage angegeben." (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Steckbrief.html)
"Why Do Italians Test Positive After Symptoms Are Long Gone?", https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-do-italians-test-positive-after-symptoms-are-long-gone
Italy mandated 28 days of self-isolation for people who tested positive or who have symptoms (but cannot be tested). Because it was found that asymptomatic and near-asymptomatic carriers can shed the virus for more than the previously mandated 14 days of self-isolation.
Only relevant measures that apply to me or to us in Salzburg (Westerwald).
Source: https://www.rlp.de/fileadmin/rlp-stk/pdf-Dateien/Corona/2020-03-23_3._CoBeLVO.pdf#page=4
§4
(1) Der Aufenthalt im öffentlichen Raum ist nur alleine oder mit einer weiteren nicht im Haushalt lebenden Person und im Kreis der Angehörigen des eigenen Hausstands zulässig. Zu anderen als den in Satz 1 genannten Personen ist in der Öffentlichkeit, wo immer möglich, ein Mindestabstand von 1,5 Metern einzuhalten. […]
(2) Jede übrige, über Absatz 1 Satz 1 hinausgehende Ansammlung von Personen (Ansammlung) ist […] […] untersagt. Ausgenommen sind Ansammlungen, die der Aufrechterhaltung der öffentlichen Sicherheit und Ordnung oder Daseinsvorsorge zu dienen bestimmt sind.
§7 (2) Eine kurzzeitige Anwesenheit in einem Risikogebiet,beispielsweise im Rahmen einer Durchreise, gilt nicht als Aufenthalt nach Absatz1, selbst wenn es dabei etwa bei einem Tankvorgang, einer Kaffeepause oder einem Toilettengang zu einem kurzzeitigen Kontakt mit der dortigen Bevölkerung gekommen ist.
"Das Land Rheinland-Pfalz richtet ab heute [2020-03-24] eine zentrale Telefonhotline für Patienten ein, die vermuten, sich mit dem Coronavirus infiziert zu haben. Die Federführung wird vom Deutschen Roten Kreuz getragen. Bevor Bürgerinnen und Bürger eine der in Rheinland-Pfalz eingerichteten Fieberambulanzen aufsuchen, sollte sie sich unter dieser Hotline melden. Die Hotline lautet: 0800 990 04 00." (https://www.westerwaldkreis.de/aktuelles-detailansicht/gesundheitsamt-informiert.html)
"Generell gilt: Wenn Sie direkten Kontakt zu Corona-Erkrankten hatten oder in den letzten 14 Tagen in einem der nach RKI aktuell benannten Risikogebiete waren, besteht ein relevantes Ansteckungsrisiko. In diesem Fall melden Sie sich bitte telefonisch beim Bürgertelefon des Kreisgesundheitsamtes, auch wenn Sie keine Krankheitssymptome haben. Aktuell (11.03.2020, 18:00 Uhr) nach RKI benannte Risikogebiete: […] Italien" (https://www.westerwaldkreis.de/aktuelles-detailansicht/gesundheitsamt-informiert.html)
As of 2020-03-12 09:00, it is exactly 14 days since I left the bus with the travel group from Genoa, Italy. So that's no longer applicable to me, as I have no symptoms and did not have any symptoms. The note about "not having symptoms" means "not yet having symptoms", as more or less all asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers develop symptoms within 1-2 days. Whoever did not develop symptoms within the full incubation period of 14 days is not infected, as far as anyone knows.
"Astronauts know how to handle isolation: Here are tips from Scott Kelly, Peggy Whitson and more", https://www.space.com/astronaut-tips-for-handling-isolation-coronavirus.html
Strict hygiene measures are needed even in households because of the danger of pre-symptomatic transmission (up to 48 hours before symptom onset). So the person doing the shopping could infect others if strict measures are not taken.
"How can I protect myself? The WHO says:
Don't get too close to people coughing, sneezing or with a fever - they can propel small droplets containing the virus into the air - ideally, keep 1m (3ft) away" (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51048366)
At all times.
This would mean that everyone who had a common cold caused by betacoronaviruses would be partially or fully immune against SARS-CoV-2. There are some hints to that effect from emerging studies, but nothing is sure yet.
If this effect indeed exists, there would be every reason to actively get a common cold from betacoronaviruses as a way to prevent COVID-19. The problem with doing this in a DIY manner is, of course, where to get "clean" betacoronaviruses these days, not potentially mixed with SARS-CoV-2. But a challenge with betacoronavirus would then certainly be a valid immunization strategy when done by the healthcare system.
"Und es gibt noch etwas anderes – es ist so, dass wir damit rechnen […] [d]ass es möglicher-weise eine unbemerkte Hintergrund-Immunität durch die Erkältungs-Coronaviren gibt, denn die sind schon auf eine gewisse Art und Weise mit dem SARS-2-Virus verwandt. Es könnte […] sein, dass gewisse Personen, weil die in den letzten ein, zwei Jahren eine Erkältung durch so ein Coronavirus hatten, auf eine bisher unbemerkte Art und Weise geschützt sind. Ich will dazu nur sagen, wir machen im Moment immer mehr die Beobachtung – da ist gerade auch im Printbereich eine große Studie aus China rausgekommen – dass bei gut beobachteten Haushaltssituationen die sekundäre Attack-Rate […] schön niedrig [ist]. Die liegt so im Bereich von 12, 13, 14 Prozent. Je nach Korrektur kann man auch mal sagen, vielleicht sind es mal 15, 16, 17 Prozent. Aber die liegt nicht bei 50 oder 60 Prozent oder höher, wo man dann sagen würde, das sind wahrscheinlich einfach so Zufallseffekte. Derjenige, der sich nicht infiziert hat, der war in der infektiösen Zeit nicht zu Hause oder so. Wie kann das sein, dass sich so viele im Haushalt nicht infizieren, die eigentlich da waren? Spielt da so etwas wie eine Hintergrund-Immunität eine Rolle? […] Wir müssen jetzt intensive Forschungsarbeit leisten, so schnell wie möglich, wo wir eben Fragen klären wie zum Beispiel: […] Warum infizieren sich im Haushalt doch relativ wenige, vielleicht sogar vorsichtig gesagt, unerwartet wenige? Das ist eine Kenntnis, die jetzt so langsam reift. Wie gesagt, es ist gerade ein neuer Preprint aus China erschienen und so ein paar andere Untersuchungen deuten das an. Zum Beispiel auch die Münchner Fallverfolgungsstudie hat das schon so ein bisschen angedeutet. Man muss sich das mal genauer anschauen. Gibt es vielleicht doch eine bisher unbemerkte Hintergrund-, wenn auch nur Teilimmunität?" (Christian Drosten on 2020-04-16 in "Coronavirus-Update Folge 32", https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript178.pdf , available for download from https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/Coronavirus-Update-Die-Podcast-Folgen-als-Skript,podcastcoronavirus102.html )
The Chinese study mentioned in the note above appears to be: "Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants",
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20056010 , published 2020-04-15. It says "We estimated the household SAR to be 13.8% (95% CI: 11.1-17.0%) if household contacts are defined as all close relatives and 19.3% (95% CI: 15.5-23.9%) if household contacts only include those at the same residential address as the cases […]."
This study has one severe limitation, in that it does not consider true asymptomatic cases adequately. Close contacts were placed in quarantine for 14 days and tested only when they developed symptoms. As a result, they found only few asymptomatic cases: "we included in the transmission analysis 183 clusters with a total of 335 cases (329 symptomatic and 6 asymptomatic)".
The best estimate so far is that 17.9% of cases are true asymptomatics ("Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020" , https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078829/). Adjusting for that, the secondary attack rate including asymptomatic infectees would be 13.8*(100/(100-17.9)) = 16.8% considering close relatives and 19.3*(100/(100-17.9)) = 23.5% considering housemates. That is still far from 50-60%, so cross-immunity could play a major role.
This estimate of the secondary attack rate is confirmed by the Diamond Princess case, where 634 of 3711 people (17.1%) tested positive, including all true asymptomatics because everyone was tested. The type of contact is comparable to "close relatives" in the Chinese study, and the number (17.1%) compares well with 16.8% incl. asymptomatics in the Chinese study.
A cruise ship is a good setting to measure the population-wide secondary attack rate, as it has a heterogenous, international audience. This does not exclude that some local outbreaks have a higher attack rate, as a homogenous group might share a lack of cross-immunity. For example, a 75% of a 60-person choir was reported to have contracted COVID-19 during one exercise session.
The upper bound for the secondary attack rate is still infection among housemates (23.5% incl. asymptomatic infectees, see above). That would mean, up to three in four people could be naturally immune to SARS-CoV-2.
Probably, it will be possible to determine from the shape of the infection case number curve if an epidemic burned out on its own or due to interventions. Also, if antibody tests show that in no sufficiently large group more than ~24% of people had a COVID-19 infection, it will be a strong argument supporting the cross-immunity theory. So far, New York City reached 21%, using reliable antibody tests (see https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html ).
passive immunization with antibodies
As per a Chinese study, antibodies from recovered patients can be used as a treatment for COVID-19 (see http://www.msn.com/en-xl/lifestyle/health/a/ar-BB12gzZR ). This also means, antibodies can very probably be used as a passive immunization ("vaccine") for prophylaxis, or at least for post-exposure prophylaxis, similar to how it's done for rabies. There we have it, our vaccine.
"Die passive Immunisierung – also der Schutz durch Antikörper von Tieren oder anderen Menschen – ist ein ganz altes Prinzip. Es funktioniert sehr gut, allerdings nur für eine gewisse Zeit. Denn Antikörper sind Proteine, die innerhalb von Wochen wieder aus dem Blut der Geimpften verschwinden. Für diese Zeit bieten sie aber einen erstaunlich guten passiven Schutz. Für Personen, die einem hohen Risiko ausgesetzt sind, ist die passive Immunisierung sehr sinnvoll. Letztlich ist das eine 1-zu-1-Situation, man muss relativ viele Antikörper geben, damit die Person auch geschützt ist. Mit dem Serum eines Spenders kann man nicht sehr viele andere Menschen schützen.
Heute befinden wir uns in einer Situation, wo wir die nächste Generation der passiven Immunisierung entwickeln können: indem wir therapeutische Antikörper synthetisch herstellen. Das wäre die passive Immunisierung 2.0. Die genetischen Informationen für solche Antikörper werden dabei aus dem Blut von Genesenen gewonnen. Bei einigen Krankheiten passiert das schon und es werden Antikörper in großen Mengen technisch hergestellt. Gerade in der Rheumatologie werden therapeutische Antikörper schon seit mehr als 20 Jahren eingesetzt.
Die passive Immunisierung hat einen gewissen Vorteil gegenüber den Virus-Impfstoffen: Die verwendeten Antikörper bestehen immer aus menschlichen Proteinen. Die Zulassungsverfahren sind daher nicht so aufwendig wie bei aktiven Impfstoffen, die Virusbestandteile enthalten." (https://www.t-online.de/a/a/id_87668590)
"COVID-19 Reinfection Risk Questioned After Low Levels Of Antibodies Found In Recovered Patients", https://www.newsweek.com/a-1496776 . Tells that a third of cured patient did not have a sufficiently high antibody levels in order to be protected from subsequent infections.
"Im stark von Corona-Fällen betroffenen Kreis Heinsberg haben Prof. Streeck und sein Team diverse Oberflächen getestet und kein aktives Virus nachweisen können […] Die bisherige Forschung zeige: Vor allem große Menschenmengen mit viel Kontakt seien eine Gefahr, also beispielsweise Partys und Fußballspiele." (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP7La2bkOMo)
"COVID-19: Optionen für Maßnahmen zur Kontaktreduzierung in Gebieten, in denen vermehrt Fälle bekannt wurden", https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Kontaktreduzierung.html
Shutting down public gatherings was enough in many Chinese cities to suppress the case levels to the low daily counts (~40) we're seeing as of 2020-03-10. So it may not be needed to enforce complete lockdowns in Europe, if other measures are taken early enough.
From the head of the WHO mission to China: "You said different cities responded differently. How?
It depended on whether they had zero cases, sporadic ones, clusters or widespread transmission.
First, you have to make sure everyone knows the basics: hand-washing, masks, not shaking hands, what the symptoms are. Then, to find sporadic cases, they do fever checks everywhere, even stopping cars on highways to check everyone.
As soon as you find clusters, you shut schools, theaters, restaurants. Only Wuhan and the cities near it went into total lockdown.
[…]
In Wuhan, in the beginning, it was 15 days from getting sick to hospitalization. They got it down to two days from symptoms to isolation. That meant a lot fewer infected."
(https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html)
"On the basis of these results the scientist advises that for walking the distance of people moving in the same direction in 1 line should be at least 4–5 meter, for running and slow biking it should be 10 meters and for hard biking at least 20 meters. Also, when passing someone it is advised to already be in different lane at a considerable distance e.g. 20 meters for biking."
Source: "Belgian-Dutch Study: Why in times of COVID-19 you can not walk/run/bike close to each other.", https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/a5df19c77d08
This is however not to be applied verbatim, as it is mostly about particles landing on the clothing of others, where they pose little to no infection risk as fomites based infection seems to be not much of a concern for COVID-19.
"Respiratory Pathogen Emission Dynamics"
video: https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/video-player/18357411
article: https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/module/2763852
This argues that sneezes can transport pathogens for 7-8 m away. So keeping a distance of 1.5 m would not be enough in that case. However, it is not relevant in practice as violent sneezes into ones exact direction basically never happen.
"Auch ohne Symptome sinnvoll: RKI ändert Einschätzung zu Mundschutz", https://m.focus.de/gesundheit/news/a_id_11843714.html
"In der Auswertung wurde bei keinem der elf Patienten, die eine Maske trugen, Virus im gesammelten Material nachgewiesen, "weder über fünf Mikrometer, noch unter fünf Mikrometer Tröpfchengröße", sagt Drosten.
Bei den übrigen, "ungeschützten" zehn Patienten wurden in beiden Größendimensionen Virus-Tröpfchen gefunden, in einem Fall bei drei, in dem anderen bei vier Patienten.
[…] Die beiden Studien aus Asien zeigen, dass das Tragen einer Maske in einem möglichen Frühstadium der Infektion also durchaus vor der Freigabe und Weitergabe des Virus schützen könnte. Drosten stellt dennoch klar, dass eine einfache Maske den Träger nicht vor einer Infektion durch die Luft schützt." (https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/a_id_11856513.html)
Note that these masks were simple (medical?) face masks, no FFP2 / FFP3 respirators.
"Experts Increasingly Question Advice Against Widespread Use of Face Masks", https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/experts-question-advice-against-face-mask-use-coronavirus.html
"A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers", https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/ .
The results are not simple to interpret, as there is only one statistically significant result: that cloth masks increase risk of influenza-like illness by a factor of 13.25 (95% CI 1.74 to 100.97). Maybe that means that cloth masks somehow do harm when it comes to influenza virus, maybe by humidity retention? And maybe that is something that can be fixed?
This did not compare cloth masks to no mask use, but shows that cloth masks are subpar compared with medical masks. Strictly speaking, it does not prove that medical masks are better than no masks, as cloth masks could also perhaps do harm compared to no masks.
About the type of masks: "Masks used in the study were locally manufactured medical (three layer, made of non-woven material) or cloth masks (two layer, made of cotton) commonly used in Vietnamese hospitals. […] Laboratory tests showed the penetration of particles through the cloth masks to be very high (97%) compared with medical masks (44%) (used in trial) and 3M 9320 N95 (<0.01%), 3M Vflex 9105 N95 (0.1%)."
There is no need for gloves. They can hardly be re-used.
More knowledge about gas masks and their filters:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atemschutzmaske
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atemschutzfilter
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBRN_defense
"Laut [… Christian Drosten] würden lediglich hochtechnische Masken, die eine [… Partikelgröße bis hinunter] zu 500 Nanometern filtern können, auch im Raum befindliche Virus-Aerosole filtern. Das Tragen dieser Masken sei aber häufig mit einer arbeitsmedizinischen Voruntersuchung, beispielsweise auf die Lungenfunktion, verbunden. Das kann man nicht für die allgemeine Bevölkerung einfach so empfehlen und freigeben." (https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/a_id_11856513.html)
"Ultra-simple, fast-to-make, great-fitting masks", https://ragmask.com/
How to reuse N95 masks:
https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/hcwcontrols/recommendedguidanceextuse.html
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3QYVWO4kj5qwuSHnhcM9uQ
https://sci-hub.tw/10.1371/journal.pone.0186217 (comparison of disinfection treatments)
Mask recommendations by a mask manufacturer: https://www.blsgroup.it/news1/436-coronavirus-2019-ncov-en.html
A Lancet article, arguing for compulsory masking: "Mass masking in the COVID-19 epidemic: people need guidance", https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30520-1
A study showing that any use of masks (even home-made ones) has the capacity to slow and help end the pandemic: "Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory Infections among the General Population", https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/
How to wash your hands: https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/How_To_HandWash_Poster.pdf
How to produce hand disinfectant:
This could be either pre-exposure or post-exposure prophylaxis. In the second case, one would take the drug once being alerted by contact tracers that one had been in contact with a coronavirus infected.
"Trials of drugs to prevent coronavirus infection begin in health care workers", https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/trials-drugs-prevent-coronavirus-infection-begin-health-care-workers
Personal hypothesis: A virus infection as an epidemic at the cellular level. As always when dealing with an epidemic, control measures are most effective when taken at the beginning, and much less severe control measures are needed to achieve the same reduction of total viral load at a given point of time compared to the baseline.
From that perspective, prophylaxis is the best time for control measures. It is probable that prophylactics will help even when they are imperfect – as long as they slow the spread of the virus to be "still exponential but slower". This gives the immune system more time to react, making it more probable that it will win the race against the virus before it comes to serious disease or death.
This is the same logic why also use of imperfect masks etc. helps: in all viral infections, higher viral load at the time of infection makes serious disease more probable because it gives the virus a headstart, reducing the time that the immune system has to react. Prophylactics would have the opposite effect, even when not completely inhibiting the virus.
Personal hypothesis: There is probably no need for antiviral treatments to be fully effective against viral replication. They just should reduce the speed of replication, giving the immune system more time to find and produce enough antibodies. This is similar to the effect of viral load at time of infection: it's all about a race between viral replication and the immune system.
Viral replication is basically an epidemic among the cells of the body. If a few cells get infected and die, there is no issue; the body as a whole is only affected if many cells get infected. The real solution (like a vaccine in public health) is the body producing antibodies. That needs some time. To give it enough time to do that, drugs can help to slow down viral replication. And just like in an epidemic, it will be best to treat as early as possible, as slow but still exponential replication from a high starting number could still infect too many cells, while the same slow but still exponential replication from a low starting number keeps total virions in safe limits until the body has its antibodies ready.
In that light, even a light antiviral taken prophylactically combined with hygiene, masking and distancing to limit viral load at time of infection seems to be a good strategy. That opens other options for drugs that are much safer than chloroquine but not as potent to inhibit the virus, such as luteolin.
These are two herbal substances and one synthetic analogue that is already approved for use in drugs.
"Potential Inhibitor of COVID-19 Main Protease (Mpro) From Several Medicinal Plant Compounds by Molecular Docking Study", https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0226/v1
This is 3D simulation of the molecules and their binding energy to active sites of the virus. It identifies quercetin as having one of the highest binding energies. Basically, it's about throwing the molecule as a wrench into the gears, namely into some nooks and crannies of the virus proteins.
It says: "Therefore, nelfinavir and lopinavir may represent potential treatment options, and kaempferol, quercetin, […] appeared to have the best potential to act as COVID-19 Mpro inhibitors." Acting as inhibitors would probably mean they should be used prophylactically.
"Small Molecules Blocking the Entry of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus into Host Cells", https://jvi.asm.org/content/78/20/11334, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC521800/
(This study is from 2004.)
"TGG […] from Galla chinensis and luteolin from Veronicalina riifolia markedly inhibited the interaction of SARS-CoV S-protein and ACE2. However, the anti-SARS-CoV activity of these compounds remain to be evaluated." (https://www.ijbs.com/v16p1708.htm)
Luteolin in particular is widespread in many common plants, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luteolin . It is also legal as a food additive.
"Plant power: The Ultimate Guide on Quercetin & Coronavirus", https://alphagreen.io/quercetin
"A made-in-Canada solution to the coronavirus outbreak?", https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/a-made-in-canada-solution-to-the-coronavirus-outbreak
About the researcher who initiated the first and only human trial for prophylactic use of quercetin.
"What about COVID-19 and quercetin?", https://www.drwalt.com/blog/2020/03/23/what-about-covid-19-and-quercetin/
"Quercetin supplementation and upper respiratory tract infection: A randomized community clinical trial", https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043661810001064
The study was abot taking 1000 mg quercetin daily for 12 weeks. It did not find any overall effect, but found that quercetin protects against cold in fit people aged 40+:
"No significant group differences were measured for URTI outcomes for all subjects combined, or when analyzing separately by gender, body mass index, and age categories. Regression analysis revealed that the strongest interaction effect with group status was self-reported fitness level. A separate analysis of subjects 40 years of age and older rating themselves in the top half of the entire group for fitness level (N = 325) showed lower URTI severity (36% reduction, P = 0.020) and URTI total sick days (31% reduction, P = 0.048) for the Q-1000 group compared to placebo."
"Prophylactic Efficacy of Quercetin 3-β-O-d-Glucoside against Ebola Virus Infection", https://aac.asm.org/content/60/9/5182
Very interesting study, showing that the equivalent human prophylactic dose of about 4000 mg per day would protect against a 1000× LD50 (means, certainly deadly) dose of Ebola virus.
So if quercetin (here a derivative of it) helps, hopefully lower doses help against lower does of virus. Because given that about 60-80% of humans died from Ebola infection, the equivalent dose viral does would be much smaller than 1000× LD50.
"Chumakov’s parents were Russian virologists and made, I think, a startling observation long ago, in the 1970s. They observed that the oral polio vaccine not only was tremendously protective against polio but interestingly enough, it protected against other things like polio as an RNA virus. Its genetics in the form of RNA. Many are, HIV. […] It protected against influenza even better than the developing vaccines that are specific for influenza that depend on time to develop the antibodies, et cetera, to be effective. […] They didn’t see flu developing in the polio vaccinated people in Russia. There was a 3.85 or so fold reduction. […] So, if you use this to protect, let’s say, against flu, you would probably get five, 10 weeks, maybe longer.", https://www.pbs.org/wnet/amanpour-and-company/video/can-an-oral-polio-vaccine-help-stop-the-coronavirus/
The facts are not too clear, but exercise is beneficial anyway and it won't make anything worse.
"Exercise may protect against a deadly coronavirus complication. One expert thinks it should be recommended just like social distancing.", https://www.businessinsider.com/exercise-may-help-prevent-a-deadly-coronavirus-complication-2020-4
"Online-Supermärkte in der Übersicht: Wer jetzt noch zeitnah liefert", https://t3n.de/news/a-1264762/
"Aktualisierte Fragen und Antworten des BfR vom 30. März 2020 […] Ist es in der gegenwärtigen Situation sinnvoll, Desinfektionsmittel auch im Privathaushalt einzusetzen? Das BfR sieht auch in der aktuellen Situation keine Notwendigkeit für gesunde Menschen, im Alltag Desinfektionsmittel anzuwenden. Die Empfehlungen zum Einsatz von bioziden Stoffen im Privathaushalt sind in FAQs zum Thema dargelegt (https://www.bfr.bund.de/de/fragen_und_antworten_zu_nutzen_und_risiken_von_desinfektionsmitteln_im_privathaushalt-190275.html). Welche Desinfektionsmaßnahmen durchzuführen sind, wenn ein Infizierter unter Quarantäne im Haushalt lebt, ist mit dem zuständigen Gesundheitsamt oder dem betreuenden Arzt bzw. der betreuenden Ärztin abzusprechen." (https://www.bfr.bund.de/de/-244062.html)
"Im stark von Corona-Fällen betroffenen Kreis Heinsberg haben Prof. Streeck und sein Team diverse Oberflächen getestet und kein aktives Virus nachweisen können: Weder auf Handys, Türklinken, Waschbecken noch Katzen, selbst bei hoch infektiösen Familien. Er betont daher, es gebe stand jetzt keine Gefahr, beim Einkaufen, jemand anderen zu infizieren. Die bisherige Forschung zeige: Vor allem große Menschenmengen mit viel Kontakt seien eine Gefahr, also beispielsweise Partys und Fußballspiele. Prof. Hendrik Streeck ist Direktor des Instituts für Virologie und HIV-Forschung an der Universität Bonn." (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP7La2bkOMo)
"Aktualisierte Fragen und Antworten des BfR vom 30. März 2020 […] Können Coronaviren außerhalb menschlicher oder tierischer Organismen auf festen und trockenen Oberflächen überleben und infektiös bleiben? Die Stabilität von Coronaviren in der Umwelt hängt von vielen Faktoren wie Temperatur, Luftfeuchtigkeit und Beschaffenheit der Oberfläche sowie vom speziellen Virusstamm und der Virusmenge ab. Im Allgemeinen sind humane Coronaviren nicht besonders stabil auf trockenen Oberflächen. In der Regel erfolgt die Inaktivierung in getrocknetem Zustand innerhalb von Stunden bis einigen Tagen. Für das neuartige Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 zeigen erste Laboruntersuchungen einer amerikanischen Arbeitsgruppe, dass es nach starker Kontamination bis zu 3 Stunden als Aerosol, bis zu 4 Stunden auf Kupferoberflächen, bis zu 24 Stunden auf Karton und bis zu 2-3 Tagen auf Edelstahl und Plastik infektiös bleiben kann.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori%3Arid%3Acrossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub%3Dpubmed
"
(https://www.bfr.bund.de/de/-244062.html)
"SARS-CoV-2: Wie lange das Virus in der Luft und auf Oberflächen nachweisbar bleibt", https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/111039 . The interesting point here is that the decay of the virus particles is exponential, i.e. it has a half-life (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_decay).
"Kann das neuartige Coronavirus über Lebensmittel und Gegenstände übertragen werden?", https://www.bfr.bund.de/de/-244062.html
"How to Clean and Disinfect Yourself, Your Home, and Your Stuff", https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-disinfectant-cleaning-guide . Among others, it includes the following tips:
"Daily clean and disinfect surfaces that are frequently touched in the room where the [COVID19] patient is being cared for, such as bedside tables, bedframes, and other bedroom furniture. Regular household soap or detergent should be used first for cleaning, and then, after rinsing, regular household disinfectant containing 0.1% sodium hypochlorite (i.e. equivalent to 1000 ppm) should be applied."
Source: "Home care for patients with COVID-19 presenting with mild symptoms and management of their contacts", https://www.who.int/publications-detail/home-care-for-patients-with-suspected-novel-coronavirus-(ncov)-infection-presenting-with-mild-symptoms-and-management-of-contacts
"Surfaces that may become damaged by sodium hypochlorite may be cleaned with a neutral detergent followed by a 70% concentration of ethanol" (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-sixth-update-Outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf)
"Gloves and protective clothing (e.g. plastic aprons) should be used when cleaning surfaces or handling clothing or linen soiled with body fluids. Depending on the context, either utility or single-use gloves can be used. After use, utility gloves should be cleaned with soap and water and decontaminated with 0.1% sodium hypochlorite solution. Single-use gloves (e.g. nitrile or latex) should be discarded after each use. Perform hand hygiene before putting on and after removing gloves."
(So this shows that it is not necessary to wear a mask when cleaning surfaces, or a respirator mask for that matter, as there will be no infectious levels of airborne viruses.)
Source: "Home care for patients with COVID-19 presenting with mild symptoms and management of their contacts", https://www.who.int/publications-detail/home-care-for-patients-with-suspected-novel-coronavirus-(ncov)-infection-presenting-with-mild-symptoms-and-management-of-contacts
"ACE2 and HYPERTENSION", http://www.nephjc.com/news/covidace2 . The article gives a lot of background. To be studied in more detail.
Additionally when exposed to known infected people.
This is mostly derived from "The Open-Air Treatment of Pandemic Influenza", https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4504358/ . There, they argue that the open air hospitals had a very low infection rate of healthcare workers because the breeze quickly dispersed pathogens. So any environment with high air exchange, esp. outdoors, will help to prevent transmission.
personal protective equipment
Detailed instructions can be derived from how an Italian country doctor uses PPE when visiting patients at home. See: https://time.com/5816874
References about the effectiveness of "blue shop towel" for making masks: https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:4262082
Main file downloaded and available at: ./Literature/Interactions_with_Experimental_COVID-19_Therapies.2020-03-12.pdf
Review of experimental drugs against SARS-CoV-2: "Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2: Antivirale Wirkstoffe auf dem Prüfstand", https://www.aerzteblatt.de/archiv/213027
"Global Virus Network: SARS-CoV-2 Updates – Therapeutics", https://gvn.org/sars-cov-2-response-efforts/other-sars-cov-2-updates-therapeutics/
As of 2020-04-16, this seems to be clearly the most effective drug so far.
"Gilead says it expects to share preliminary data from a study of remdesivir in severe patients at the end of April, and will work quickly to interpret the findings. Come May, initial data from a placebo-controlled NIAID trial, as well as data from a Gilead study of patients with moderate symptoms of COVID-19, will also be available." (https://www.laboratoryequipment.com/563201-COVID-19-Treatment-Update-Remdesivir-Hydroxychloroquine-Leronlimab-Ivermectin-and-More/)
Of 113 severely ill patients on remdesivir therapy, only two died. See:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
It is allowed to use it in Germany on a compassionate use basis: "Aufgrund erster Forschungsergebnisse hatte die europäische Arzneimittelbehörde Ema bereits Anfang April empfohlen, Remdesivir als Behandlungsalternative für Schwerkranke einzusetzen. Das Bundesinstitut für Arzneimittel und Medizinprodukte (BfArM) erlaubte wenige Tage später, die Arznei bei schwer kranken Corona-Patienten in Deutschland zu testen. Offiziell ist die Wirksamkeit bislang aber noch nicht bestätigt." (https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/a-a-52c07b75-4594-4b84-bfa9-877bfdf6dcbe)
"Ein Team des University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research verkündete […] man habe vielleicht eine Therapie gegen das neue Coronavirus gefunden: Ende März soll ein landesweiter Test anlaufen. […] Offenbar setzen die Infektiologen aus Queensland eine Kombination ein – erstens Remdesivir […]; zweitens Resochin (Chloroquin) […].
Die ersten Einsätze bei Covid-19-Patienten in Australien hätten bereits zur vollständigen Erholung und zum «Verschwinden des Virus» geführt, sagte Paterson […].
[…]
Nun beginnt ein grosser Test, an dem sich 50 Spitäler in ganz Australien beteiligen: Geprüft wird, in welcher Mischung die beiden Heilmittel die stärkste Kraft gegen das tückische Virus entfalten."
(https://www.handelszeitung.ch/panorama/forscher-gegen-das-coronavirus-spannende-entwicklungen-des-tages)
"[Quoting prof. Raoult, who did the study about chloroquine use in Europe:] the IHU Méditerrannée-Infection (like others) has long been advising that antibiotics be prescribed concomitantly for respiratory viral infections "because they are mainly complicated by lung disease. So all people who had clinical signs susceptible of evolving into a bacterial complication of pulmonary disease were given Azithromycin. There is proof that this lowers risk in people with viral infections. The other reason is that laboratory testing shows Azithromycin to be effective against a great many viruses, although it is an antibiotic. So if we were to choose an antibiotic, it was preferable to administer one that was effective against viruses. And when you look at the comparative percentage of positive carriers with the combination of hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, you find an absolutely dramatic decrease in the number of positive carriers."
( "Covid-19: The game is over?!", http://jdmichel.blog.tdg.ch/archive/2020/03/24/covid-19-the-game-is-over-305275.html )
"treatment with a combination of hydroxychloroquine (200 mg x 3 per day for 10 days) + Azithromycin (500 mg on the first day then 250 mg per day for 5 more days), as part of the precautions for use of this combination (with in particular an electrocardiogram on D0 and D2), and outside the MA. In cases of severe pneumonia, a broad-spectrum antibiotic is also associated." (http://jdmichel.blog.tdg.ch/archive/2020/03/24/covid-19-the-game-is-over-305275.html)
The reason why an antibiotic treatment helps is: "many people who are now infected with corona (sars-cov-2) in Italy probably do not die from the virus itself, but rather from secondary bacterial infections caused by resistant microbes. It is a known case that respiratory infections of viruses generally weaken the immune system, allowing bacteria to attack more easily. This is also common for viruses that cause flu or colds. Between 10 and 30 per cent of patients admitted to hospitals with a virus-based respiratory infection subsequently receive a secondary bacterial infection, figures from the UK Antibiotic Center show. […] In a study published in acclaimed The Lancet this month, researchers found that over half of patients who died of the Wuhan virus in China had sustained a secondary bacterial infection before they died." (English translation of "Derfor tar koronaviruset så mange liv i Italia", https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kronikk/i/awEP27/a )
Since infection with antibiotics resistant bacteria happen often in hospitals, it would make sense to do the COVID-19 therapy at home if at all possible. That should work well using HCQ and azithromycin, as the antibiotics can do their job if no resistant bacteria are present.
This has not been studied yet, but it makes complete sense as CQ and HCQ are basically interchangeable and the combination is safe.
Study about the safety of chloroquine, also in combination with azithromycin: https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Chico-2011.-Azithromycin-plus-chloroquine-combination-therapy-for-protection-against-malaria-and-STD-infections-in-pregnancy.pdf
"Efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19: results of a randomized clinical trial", https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v3 . Published 2020-04-10.
From there: "31 patients were assigned to receive an additional 5-day HCQ (400 mg/d) treatment […] But for TTCR [time to clinical recovery], the body temperature recovery time and the cough remission time were significantly shortened in the HCQ treatment group. Besides, a larger proportion of patients with improved pneumonia in the HCQ treatment group (80.6%, 25 of 31) compared with the control group (54.8%, 17 of 31). Notably, all 4 patients progressed to severe illness that occurred in the control group. However, there were 2 patients with mild adverse reactions in the HCQ treatment group. Significance: Among patients with COVID-19, the use of HCQ could significantly shorten TTCR and promote the absorption of pneumonia."
This seems to indicate that HCQ helps if given early as it prevents progressing to severe disease – which is not surprising for antivirals, they work best when given early.
"Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro", https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0
"600 mg HCQ per day after 6 days, 90% of patients tested COVID-19 negative. 96% of control group tested positive after 6 days." (https://twitter.com/RiganoESQ/status/1239780304082124800)
There is also this ongoing study evaluating the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine for prophylaxis: https://www.covidtrial.io/
"On the contrary, initial results from a placebo-controlled trial of hydroxychloroquine at Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, China indicate that patients hospitalized with mild COVID-19 recovered more quickly with addition of the drug than with placebo at the start of a standard treatment. In this trial, 62 patients at the hospital were randomized to receive either a placebo or 200 mg of hydroxychloroquine twice daily for five days, in addition to standard care for both groups. According to the results, the 31 patients given hydroxychloroquine reported a normal body temperature and cessation of cough much quicker when compared with the 31 patients given the placebo. A larger proportion of patients on hydroxychloroquine also demonstrated an improved chest CT, with 61% showing “significant improvement." (https://www.laboratoryequipment.com/563201-COVID-19-Treatment-Update-Remdesivir-Hydroxychloroquine-Leronlimab-Ivermectin-and-More/)
HCQ is used by Dr. Cavanna, an Italian "country doctor" who pioneered treating people at home early with antivirals rather than waiting until they turn up in the emergency room later. He says "it's the most effective drug so far", obviously only from his own experience. See: https://time.com/5816874
Chloroquine was confirmed to be effective in a clinical study:
Other sources about this study:
Summary of current research as of 2020-03-10: "A systematic review on the efficacy and safety of chloroquine for the treatment of COVID-19", https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907
"Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro", https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0 . That study shows that in vitro, chloroquine works even better (!) than remdesivir to inhibit the virus, at concentrations that are achievable in vivo.
"Covid-19: The game is over?!", http://jdmichel.blog.tdg.ch/archive/2020/03/24/covid-19-the-game-is-over-305275.html . The article contains very interesting information about the political backgrounds around the struggle if chloroquine should be used or not against COVID-19.
"Efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19: results of a randomized clinical trial", https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v2 . The strength of their findings has to be reviewed still …
"Chloroquine seems to need a higher concentration than remdesivir, but it's within the feasible range, and if it really works as well as the published in vitro results, it would be quite promising […]
I would suggest a cocktail of drugs that target different stages of replication," Reiss said. "This virus is probably going to be like a number of other viruses, and it will undergo mutation and selection, so if you use only one antiviral drug, you are going to ultimately select for resistance.
What's more, the treatment will be most effective when given to a patient early on, perhaps even before symptoms develop, she said. "Taken very early in the course of exposure, the antiviral drugs could have a real impact," she said. After someone is already in the hospital in respiratory distress and a high fever, "it is much harder to treat the infection, people are more likely to treat the disease.""
(https://www.livescience.com/possible-treatments-new-coronavirus.html)
Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine seem to be quite equal (at least in vitro) regarding their effect for treatment of COVID-19, but hydroxychloroquine is superior (at least in vitro) for prophylaxis. See: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1239776019856461824 [TODO: add the original sources.]
"if you look at the data as presented, at least in vitro, it seems like chloroquine can be used as an early-stage drug […] Chloroquine is a synthetic form of quinine, a compound found in the bark of cinchona trees native to Peru and used for centuries to treat malaria. […] The biggest question regarding chloroquine he said, is at how many days into an infection it can be effectively administered to someone sick with the new coronavirus. As an analogy, Tamiflu works very well against susceptible influenza A virus strains as long as you take it early enough,” he said. “And that's what we have to determine with chloroquine, whether it can be used when somebody has been sick for more than a few days. But the indication so far, based on this paper and past work with SARS, is that it might be a useful drug." (https://www.asbmb.org/asbmb-today/science/020620/could-an-old-malaria-drug-help-fight-the-new-coron)
" Forscher: Malaria-Mittel wirkt womöglich auch gegen Coronavirus. Ein herkömmliches Malaria-Mittel wirkt womöglich auch gegen das neuartige Coronavirus. Das Mittel Chloroquin, das in Deutschland unter dem Handelsnamen Resochin bekannt ist, habe sich in einer klinischen Studie in China als wirksam gezeigt, sagte der Leiter des Instituts für Infektionskrankheiten in Marseille, Didier Raoult, der Nachrichtenagentur AFP. Das französische Gesundheitsministerium warnte dagegen vor Euphorie." ( https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-coronavirus-101.html#Forscher-Malaria-Mittel-wirkt-womoeglich-auch-gegen-Coronavirus )
"Ein Forscher in Marseille hatte zuvor eine erste klinische Studie mit 24 infizierten Patienten durchgeführt. Bei drei Vierteln von ihnen war das Virus sechs Tage nach Beginn der Einnahme nicht mehr nachweisbar, wie der Leiter des Instituts für Infektionskrankheiten, Didier Raoult, mitteilte." (https://www.handelszeitung.ch/news/vielversprechend-sanofi-setzt-auf-malaria-medikament-gegen-corona)
"In the Chinese study, which was conducted by researchers from the department of infection and immunity at the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, the 15 patients who didn’t get hydroxychloroquine were treated with conventional care. This includes bed rest, oxgen inhalation, and the use of anti-viral drugs recommended in China’s treatment guidelines like lopinavir and ritonavir, and antibiotics when necessary."
So this rather proves that chloroquine is as good as those other antiviral drugs.
See: "Malaria Drug Chloroquine No Better Than Regular Coronavirus Care, Study Finds", https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydroxychloroquine-no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study .
Summary of therapy and dosing instructions from around the world: "A systematic review on the efficacy and safety of chloroquine for the treatment of COVID-19", https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907
This calls for all kinds of monitoring while using chloroquine.
"However, if patients are old or have underlying conditions with serious symptoms, physicians should consider an antiviral treatment. If they decide to use the antiviral therapy, they should start the administration as soon as possible, the task force noted.
For the antiviral treatment, the doctors recommended lopinavir 400mg/ritonavir 100mg (Kaletra two tablets, twice a day) or chloroquine 500mg orally per day.
As chloroquine is not available in Korea, doctors could consider hydroxychloroquine 400mg orally per day, they said. […]
The antiviral treatment for the new coronavirus will be most suitable for seven to 10 days. Still, the period could be shortened or extended depending on clinical progress, the doctors said."
("Physicians work out treatment guidelines for coronavirus", http://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=7428 )
About calculating between chloroquine base and chloroquine phosphate: "the need to differentiate between regimens based on chloroquine phosphate and chloroquine base since 500 mg of the first correspond to 300 mg of the second" (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907)
"FDA authorizes widespread use of unproven drugs to treat coronavirus, saying possible benefit outweighs risk", https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/30/coronavirus-drugs-hydroxychloroquin-chloroquine/ . Contains good information about what kind of medical screening is needed to prevent serious side effects of chloroquine (heart arrythmia), which otherwise would happen in about 1% of cases.
Study about the safety of chloroquine, also in combination with azithromycin: https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Chico-2011.-Azithromycin-plus-chloroquine-combination-therapy-for-protection-against-malaria-and-STD-infections-in-pregnancy.pdf
"Study of High-Dose Chloroquine For COVID-19 Stopped Early Due to Patient Deaths", https://www.sciencealert.com/clinical-trial-for-high-dose-of-chloroquine-stopped-early-due-to-safety-concerns
The original study is at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056424v2 . The high-dose group was "600mg CQ twice daily for 10 days or total dose 12g", which is obviously very high and much higher than the current treatment recommendations anywhere on the planet.
"Covid-19: The bitter truth about using hydroxychloroquine as a preventive drug", https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/covid-19-the-bitter-truth-about-using-hydroxychloroquine-as-a-preventive-drug-1659116-2020-03-24
"Chloroquine May Fight Covid-19—and Silicon Valley’s Into It", https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-malaria-drug-may-fight-covid-19-and-silicon-valleys-into-it/
Report of a couple in the U.S.A. who took chloroquine sold for fish. One of them died, the other had to be treated in the hospital. Also with a report that three people in Nigeria had overdosed on chloroquine after Trump endorsed it as a potential treatment for COVID-19: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/health/arizona-coronavirus-chloroquine-death/index.html . The report did not give a reason why the person in the USA died from chloroquine. It could simply be an overdose, which is easily possible with chloroquine.
"A New Study Questions the Effectiveness of a Potential “Game Changer” Against the Coronavirus", https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/a-new-study-questions-the-effectiveness-of-a-potential-game-changer-against-the-coronavirus
The results can also be seen as just proving that late intervention with CQ / HCQ does not help. Early intervention could still help against the disease progressing.
"Use of Hydroxychloroquine and Chloroquine During the COVID-19 Pandemic: What Every Clinician Should Know", https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764199
Chloroquine treatment information by WHO, including about overdose: https://apps.who.int/medicinedocs/en/d/Jh2922e/2.5.1.html
Chloroquine is also used for treatment of fish, and might be possible to purchase via that route if necessary. See: https://www.reef2reef.com/threads/chloroquine-phosphate.192309/
"It is available as a generic medication.[1] The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$0.04 [per dose.]" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroquine)
When ordering Chloroquine, tell that it's needed for traveling to India, Central America or the Caribbean, because:
The uncertainty about the use of chloroquine but its established safety for preventative treatment (over weeks and months) might mean that it's best to use chloroquine for prevention of COVID-19 infection. That is, get a larger stockpile of it and use it once the pandemic has spread enough to present a real danger. Only one person per household would use it and be the one to go shopping when needed, while the others would all just stay home.
But note that for prophylaxis, hydroxychloroquine seems to be superior (see https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1239776019856461824 ; link to the original source needed). Also note, there is a certain lifetime dose of chloroquine that should not be exceeded or one might suffer eye damage.
On 2020-02-14, chloroquine phosphate did cost about 50 EUR for 20 tablets of 250 mg each. On 2020-03-07, it did cost 74-79 EUR for the same amount, at the same sources (namely dokteronline.com).
There are two equivalent variants of chloroquine available in medications: chloroquine phosphate and chloroquine sulphate. See: "tablet 100 mg, 150 mg, 300 mg base (as phosphate or sulfate) […] chloroquine base 150 mg is equivalent to chloroquine sulfate 200 mg or Chloroquine phosphate 250 mg" (https://apps.who.int/medicinedocs/en/d/Jh2922e/2.5.1.html).
Both are used against malaria, just the dosage is different (malaria prophylaxis: for phosphate, 1 × 250 mg once weekly, for sulphate 2 × 400 mg once weekly). Only the phosphate variant increased in price in 2020-02 / -03, probably because it was the easiest to find and buy online. At 2020-03-07, the sulphate variant was three times cheaper!
Interest in chloroquine spiked a lot compared to the baseline: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=chloroquine,remdesivir
In Germany and generally in Europe, chloroquine for malaria prophylaxis seems to be available online with a prescription handed out in response to an online inquiry.
Chloroquine phosphate.
Probably a scam site, as per:
Chloroquine sulphate.
Chloroquine phosphate for fish.
More research options.
actemra (immune modulator)
Used to treat cytokine storms, an immune system overreaction. In cases where this happens, the cytokine storm and not the coronavirus would be the cause of death.
This does not treat COVID-19 but prevents potential complications. To be started when showing the first symptoms, and perhaps also when somebody in the household gets sick (as one might also become infected but not show symptoms).
To be used as a blood thinner, because it seems that stroke due to blood clotting is a possible complication of COVID-19, even in young adults. See: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults
"Die Forscher identifizierten ein zelluläres Protein, das für das Eindringen des neuartigen Coronavirus` in Zellen wichtig ist. „Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass SARS-CoV-2 die im menschlichen Körper vorhandene Protease TMPRSS2 benötigt, um in die Wirtszelle einzudringen“, sagte Stefan Pöhlmann, Leiter der Abteilung Infektionsbiologie am Deutschen Primatenzentrum laut Mitteilung. „Damit haben wir einen Ansatzpunkt zur Bekämpfung des Virus gefunden.“
Coronavirus: Forscher wollen Medikament testen
Sie verweisen auch auf ein bereits existierendes Medikament, das diese Funktion erfüllen könnte: Camostat Mesilate ist ein in Japan zugelassenes Medikament, das bei Entzündungen der Bauchspeicheldrüse eingesetzt wird.
„Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass Camostat Mesilate auch vor der Krankheit Covid-19 schützen könnte“, sagte der Infektionsforscher Markus Hoffmann." (https://www.morgenpost.de/vermischtes/article228625595/Coronavirus-Deutsche-Forscher-wollen-Medikament-testen.html)
https://m.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-COVID-19-treatment-shows-100-percent-survival-rate-preliminary-data-624058
Documentary about traditional Chinese medicine aplied to COVID-19 patients: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbkrNAGu3dk
Makes the following claim, but without giving any source: "Of the 16 makeshift hospitals in Wuhan, the one staffed entirely by TCM doctors reported no death."
Quinine is the natural precursor of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, and was the world's first anti-malarial. However, it comes with heavy side effects. And its potential against COVID-19 is so far unexplored.
A quite funny article exploring why tonic water (which contains quinine) is not a suitable treatment. Includes calculations! https://www.lifesavvy.com/21618
"Home care for patients with COVID-19 presenting with mild symptoms and management of their contacts", https://www.who.int/publications-detail/home-care-for-patients-with-suspected-novel-coronavirus-(ncov)-infection-presenting-with-mild-symptoms-and-management-of-contacts
"Intensivmediziner veröffentlichen Empfehlungen zur Therapie von COVID-19-Patienten", https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/111046
"A rapid advice guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infected pneumonia (standard version)", 2020-02-06, https://mmrjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40779-020-0233-6
"What Doctors on the Front Lines Wish They’d Known a Month Ago", https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus.html
Excerpts: "At Lincoln Hospital in the Bronx, Dr. Nicholas Caputo followed 50 patients who arrived with low oxygen levels between 69 and 85 percent (95 is normal). After five minutes of proning, they had improved to a mean of 94 percent. Over the next 24 hours, nearly three-quarters were able to avoid intubation; 13 needed ventilators.
Proning does not seem to work as well in older patients, a number of doctors said. No one knows yet if this will be a lasting remedy, Dr. Caputo said, but if he could go back to early March, he would advise himself and others: “Don’t jump to intubation.” […]
For heavier patients, Dr. Levitan advocates combining breathing support from a CPAP machine or regular oxygen with comfortable positioning on a pregnancy massage mattress. He had one shipped to the hotel where he was staying in New York and brought it to Bellevue.
The first patient to rest on it arrived with oxygen saturation in the 40s, breathing rapidly and with an abnormally fast heartbeat, he said. After the patient was given oxygen through a nasal cannula — clear plastic tubes that fit into the nostrils — Dr. Levitan helped her to lie face down on the massage table. The oxygen level in her blood climbed to the mid-90s, he said, her pulse slowed to under 100 and she was breathing at a more normal pace. “She slept for two hours,” he said. […]
“We have to see how it pans out, but it makes a lot of sense,” Dr. Swaminathan said. “Obesity is clearly a critical risk factor.”"
Twitter thread with multiple links, first-hand experience reports and breathing technique instructions for prone positioning to improve breathing and oxygen saturation: https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1250205685868122115
Prone positioning was recommended since 2018 as the standard care for severe ARDS since 2018: https://pulmccm.org/ards-review/prone-positioning-ards-ats-sccm/ . The news with COVID-19 is that this is often good on its own, not needing mechanical ventilation.
"The Open-Air Treatment of PANDEMIC INFLUENZA", https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4504358/
"With ventilators running out, doctors say the machines are overused for Covid-19", https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/
Seems great, because it's easy to build, reliable and fail-safe.
Not really open source right now, as it's licenced CC-BY-NC-SA. But there is nothing in terms of CAD data, so it is simple to "free" this design by rewriting the instructable. Since there are no patents involved (and cannot be as it's not enough novelty), nobody forbids building this design and even selling it commercially. Just selling the instructable for now is not allowed.
AmboVent, a "medically tested" open source ventilator developed by an Israeli team, using the same principle as the MIT mechanical ambu bag ventilator: https://github.com/AmboVent/AmboVent
"MIT-based team works on rapid deployment of open-source, low-cost ventilator", http://news.mit.edu/2020/ventilator-covid-deployment-open-source-low-cost-0326 . This is the device to manufacture, if any. All information about it is available open source at https://e-vent.mit.edu/ .
modified sleep apnea machines
"Particle physicists design simplified ventilator for COVID-19 patients", https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/04/09/particle-physicists-design-simplified-ventilator-covid-19-patients
Ininnova non-invasive respirator mask made from scuba-diving gear, see https://www.isinnova.it/easy-covid19-eng/
To be researched further.
The original source is just some text that was copied&pasted around in Facebook: "POTENTIALLY LIFESAVING ADVICE by Lauren Hebert your local Dr’s of Physical Therapy
If you end up with pulmonary symptoms of corona virus pneumonia... there can be lethal damage from effusion (mucous filling lungs) or cytokine storm (body over-reacts with more effusion.)
This kills people... ESPECIALLY when the number of patients is greater than the number of ICU beds or ventilators. You will be left to drown in your mucous. That mucous can also be infected by other germs during your struggle. That is happening in Italy where there are 5x more patients than they have hospital beds. And the USA has far FEWER beds per population than does Italy.
Many years ago, physical therapists have successfully treated this with POSTURAL DRAINAGE... where the patient is tipped over a wedge to tilt the lungs and bronchial tubes upside down... to allow the mucous to flow out, where it can be coughed out.
Google it. It is EASY to do for yourself and family members. Simply get in position and let it flow, helping it along with breathing techniques that emphasize full, prolonged exhale, while puffing your cheeks and you blow out long and steady.
Start as soon as you feel lungs getting filled. Don’t wait until you are too sick to bother. 3-5 minutes several times per day.
I did this inside a nursing home in VT during the 1976 flu epidemic for resident patients. We did not lose anyone, while other nursing homes lost dozens. It is an old PT technique that has faded away since we have ventilators and related machines. BUT this time, we will NOT have nearly enough ventilators, not the ICU beds where they are provided.
One easy way to get into position is to lie over an EXERCISE BALL."
( https://www.facebook.com/prwithlipqin/photos/a.745823322124203/3017284738311372 )
There is substance to it, though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postural_drainage . And there are some studies that show it helps with pneumonia.
There is evidence that "a sticky yellow liquid" is what prevents oxygen uptake in COVID-19 patients who then require a ventilator. That might mean that removing this liquid with postural drainage would help.
See: "But one of the most severe consequences of Covid-19 suggests another reason the ventilators aren’t more beneficial. In acute respiratory distress syndrome, which results from immune cells ravaging the lungs and kills many Covid-19 patients, the air sacs of the lungs become filled with a gummy yellow fluid. “That limits oxygen transfer from the lungs to the blood even when a machine pumps in oxygen,” Gillick said. As patients go downhill, protocols developed for other respiratory conditions call for increasing the force with which a ventilator delivers oxygen, the amount of oxygen, or the rate of delivery, she explained. But if oxygen can’t cross into the blood from the lungs in the first place, those measures, especially greater force, may prove harmful. High levels of oxygen impair the lung’s air sacs, while high pressure to force in more oxygen damages the lungs." (source: "With ventilators running out, doctors say the machines are overused for Covid-19", https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/ )
Case fatality rate (means, for patients with symptoms) depends a lot on age. Based on data from China:
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Prognosis . Similar but even more skewed data is available for Italy: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19-Epidemie_in_Italien#Einfluss_von_Alter,_Geschlecht_und_Vorerkrankungen_auf_Sterblichkeit
The best estimate comes from the results from the New York City antibodies study, one of the first such studies using reliable antibody tests: "The governor suggested on Thursday that, based on the survey, the death rate in New York from Covid-19 would likely be far lower than previously believed, possibly 0.5 percent of those infected." (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html)
A recent estimate of case fatality rates from 2020-03-30: "However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. […] Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age." (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext)
So infection fatality rate is 0.66 / 1.38 = 0.478 times the case fatality rate. Further estimating that, in the worst case, 82% of the population will become infected before reaching herd immunity (as per another recent study), population fatality rate without immunization will be 0.392 times the case fatality rate. Assuming the same proportion of asymptomatic cases in all age groups (which is a conservative estimate – probably there are more in younger people), this leads to the following estimate for population fatality rate by age:
An overall infection fatality rate of 0.66% is compatible with the findings of the findings from the first epidemiological study in Gangelt, Kreis Heinsberg, Germany. There, they found 0.37% overall. However, they counted on average 2.5 persons per household. Given that COVID-19 spreads preferentially in family clusters, this skews the number of infected persons upwards and the lethality downwards. (See https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-04/heinsberg-studie-coronavirus-hendrik-streeck-storymachine-kai-diekmann ). So in total, it seems very possible that the true infection fatality rate in Gangelt will be very close to the finding from China (0.66%).
Source: "Vorläufiges Ergebnis und Schlussfolgerungen der COVID-19 Case-Cluster-Study (Gemeinde Gangelt)", https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf
From the head of the WHO mission to China: "The real case fatality rate is probably what it is outside Hubei Province, somewhere between 1 and 2 percent." (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html)
Which means that the data from Hubei province alone can be assumed to be incomplete, hiding a good number of cases that never presented to a hospital.
In addition, lethality risk is increased for people with pre-existing conditions. See also: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19-Epidemie_in_Italien#Einfluss_von_Alter,_Geschlecht_und_Vorerkrankungen_auf_Sterblichkeit
"Wenn man sich die Daten aus China anschaut, sind die Männer, die rauchen und eine COPD haben, die am allermeisten gefährdete Patientengruppe." Einmal mit dem Erreger Sars-CoV-2 infiziert, liege die Sterblichkeit diesen Zahlen zufolge bei 58 Prozent. "Wir reden sonst so von zwischen einem und maximal acht Prozent."
(https://www.spiegel.de/auto/a-a-46196d09-4aa4-4041-97e3-1fd1ff094c3f)
"Die Daten außerhalb von China deuteten Drosten zufolge darauf hin, dass sich die Wahrscheinlichkeit, an der Viruserkrankung zu sterben, eher im Bereich von 0,2 Prozent bewege. Das sei ähnlich den typischen Influenza-Pandemien von 1957 oder 1968." (https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/25547964.html)
"How deadly is the coronavirus? Based on data from 17,000 patients with this coronavirus, the WHO says: 82% develop mild symptoms, 15% develop severe symptoms, 3% become critically ill. The proportion dying from the disease, which has been named Covid-19, appears low (between 1% and 2%) - but the figures are unreliable." (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51048366)
"Sekundärinfektionen (meistens bakteriell) habe einen grossen Anteil an den Todesfällen bei covid-19. Das Virus selbst greift des Immunsystem an, das sich dann nicht mehr gegen zusätzliche Bakterien wehren kann. Im Normalfall behandelt man das mit Antibiotika und die Sache ist gegessen.
Nur hat Italien ein grosses Problem mit antibiotikaresistenten Bakterien (~11000 tote pro Jahr vs 69 in Norwegen), wh. geschuldet durch den hohen Antibiotikaanteil im Zuchtfleisch. Anscheinend ist die Lombardei ein Zentrum für die Schinkenproduktion und deshalb arg betroffen. Ähnliches gilt für Spanien." (https://blog.fefe.de/?ts=a0873c37)
The theory was originally published in Norwegian here: https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kronikk/i/awEP27/derfor-tar-koronaviruset-saa-mange-liv-i-italia-erik-martiniussen .
After age, obesity seems to be the next biggest risk factor for severe and critical illness in COVID-19: https://www.newsweek.com/a-1497791 .
"ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers may increase the risk of severe COVID-19", https://neurosciencenews.com/covid-19-ace-inhibitors-15972/
This shows a probable mechanism why certain mild diseases seem to be risk factors for a severe of fatal COVID-19 infection:
"Diaz writes, this hypothesis is supported by a recent descriptive analysis of 1,099 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections treated in China during the reporting period, December 11, 2019, to January 29, 2020. This study reported more severe disease outcomes in patients with hypertension, coronary artery disease, diabetes and chronic renal disease. All patients with the diagnoses noted met the recommended indications for treatment with ACEIs or ARBs."
"Obduktion von Corona-Opfern: Von den Toten lernen", https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/corona-obduktionen-103.html
It seems that severity of disease is also influenced by the particular strain / mutation of SARS-CoV-2. See: "Patient-derived mutations impact pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2", https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v1
It also influences the duration at which patients have positive PCR tests for the virus: "The tri-nucleotidemutation in 335ZJU-11 is unexpected; we note that this specific viral isolateis quite potent in our viral load and CPE assay, and its patient remained positive for an astounding period of 45 days and was only recently discharged from the hospital." (p. 24).
There is a risk of strokes after COVID-19 infection due to blood clotting, even in young adults: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults
"Dauerhaft geschädigt – Die Innsbrucker Universitätsklinik hat Lungenschäden bei genesenen Covid-Erkrankten festgestellt. Die Schäden sind offenbar bleibend.", https://www.rainews.it/tgr/tagesschau/articoli/2020/04/tag-Coronavirus-Lungeschaden-Forschung-Uniklinik-Innsbruck-6708e11e-28dc-4843-a760-e7f926ace61c.html
"Wir vermuten, dass Covid-19 zu Folgeerkrankungen führt", https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/a-a-bc10067a-cc41-4d94-930d-be63e6fbf68c
From there: "SPIEGEL: Mit welchen Folgeschäden müssen Corona-Patienten rechnen?
Thiery: Wir wissen, dass Covid-19 eine Systemerkrankung ist; es mehren sich Berichte beispielsweise zu neurologischen Störungen und Schädigungen des Herzens. Über die Ursachen und die Bekämpfung dieser Folgeschäden wissen wir praktisch noch nichts.
SPIEGEL: Heißt das, wenn ich Jahre nach einer Corona-Infektion einen Herzinfarkt oder einen Schlaganfall erleide, könnte das Virus dahinterstecken?
Thiery: Das ist zu befürchten. Die überschießende Entzündung verursacht bei manchen Covid-19 Patienten schwere Schädigungen der inneren Aderhaut, die Mikrogerinnsel auslösen könnten, auch Blutdruckregulation und Leber sind betroffen."